On May 13, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered the issuer credit rating on New York-based youth licensed sports apparel maker Outerstuff LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC'. Prior studies have shown that fluctuations within default rates and transitions can vary greatly depending on many circumstances specific to particular time frames, industries, and geographic regions. to 'SD' from 'CC' following its distressed exchange. The global corporate default tally has increased to 17 after two issuers defaulted since our last report. On May 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based casino resort operator Downstream Development Authority (DDA) to 'SD' from 'CCC'. On Dec. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Tennessee-based health care services provider Community Health Systems Inc. to 'SD' from 'CC'. With these liquidity supports from central banks in place, market volatility eased after the spring. 8-K: ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD - MarketWatch The rating action followed the issuer's exchange of its senior secured notes due 2027 for the new notes, including the PIK of the four quarterly principal and interest payments in the next 12 months, which are repaid pro rata during the remaining term of the notes. One-year Gini coefficients appear to be broadly cyclical and negatively correlated with default rates (see chart 30). On Dec. 8, 2020, we raised the rating on the issuer to 'CCC' from 'SD', reflecting our view of reduced refinancing risk. The negative outlook reflects the potential for a lower rating if continued weak operating performance meaningfully pressures the company's liquidity. On Nov. 3, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC' from 'D' on the completed exchange offer. On Aug. 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on North American building materials supplier and manufacturer Northwest Hardwoods Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer elected not to pay interest on its 2021 senior secured notes. On April 29, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Kansas-based consumer products supplier CSM Bakery Solutions LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer executed an amendment to extend the maturity of its US$105 million asset-based lending and has not completed refinancing of its first-lien term loan due July 2020. This is not surprising at the three- and 10-year horizons, considering the relative stress of the financial crisis has now passed beyond the 10-year time frame. We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates, such as by ensuring that default rates account for rating migration and allowing for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. The depressed commodity prices, the company's liquidity position, and the ongoing capital needs to maintain production were the main factors behind the decision. We viewed the repurchases as distressed and tantamount to a default given lenders participating in the repurchase received substantially less than the original promise of the term loan. The largest default in 2020 was from U.S.-based telecommunications provider Frontier Communications Corp., with $22.5 billion (6.3%) of the outstanding debt for the year. The procedure for calculating the Gini coefficients is illustrated in chart 31: Area B is bounded by the random curve and the Lorenz curve, while area A is bounded by the Lorenz curve and the ideal curve. On Aug. 6, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Switzerland-based offshore drilling contractor Transocean Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the issuer opted for an exchange of US$356 million due in 2023 for US$ 213 million new debt at a higher interest rate. On Aug. 7, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD'. Other sectors, such as consumer services, have had more frequent default cycles, both during and between economic cycles. Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period. On June 18, 2020, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the debt exchange was completed. On April 24, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Chilean casino operator Enjoy S.A. to 'D' from 'B-' after the company announced suspension of its shareholder meeting to treat a capital increase while the board decided to file for judicial reorganization. On July 20, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on North Carolina-based sock manufacturer Renfro Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer completed a distressed exchange. Measured on a dollar volume basis, Moody's global speculative-grade bond default rate ended 2009 at 15.6%, up from 5.9% at the end of 2008. Austria, Belgium, British Virgin Islands, Bulgaria, Channel Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guernsey, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova Republic of, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.K. On May 14, we lowered the ratings on the issuer to 'D' after it filed a voluntary petition under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. But despite the noticeable increase in defaults in 2020, peak default rates were much lower than during the financial crisis. Rating transition rates may be compared with the marginal and cumulative default rates described in the previous sections. Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. content On July 1, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Mexican lodging company Grupo Posadas S.A.B. of 15.1%. On June 19, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Hudson, Ohio-based fabric and crafts retailer Jo-Ann Stores LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC' as the company repurchased $5.6 million of its second-lien term loan at a 57% discount in the first quarter of fiscal 2021 ended May 2, 2020, and subsequently agreed to repurchase $206 million face value of first- and second-lien debt at approximately 50% discount in the second quarter ended Aug. 1, 2020. PDF Relative Attractiveness of Direct Lending: Term and Credit Risk In other words, the use of a rating category suggests that transitions, for example, to 'AA' from 'AA-' or to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-', are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989 and 1990 pools with the 'B' rating. In contrast, the issuer with the shortest time to default (36 days) was a confidentially rated U.S.-based leisure/media company. Defaults US HY default rate: According to Moody's Investors Service, the U.S.' trailing 12-month high-yield default rate jumped from August 2019's 3.1% to August 2020's 8.7% and may average 10.6% during 2020's final quarter. The holders of the existing notes will receive $750 principal amount of the new notes for every $1,000 of existing notes, and $50 of cash as a consent fee if they agree to an early tender. On June 4, 2020, we withdrew the ratings on the issuer because of insufficient information to continue the surveillance of the ratings. As one measure of ratings performance, the cumulative share of defaulters was plotted against the cumulative share of issuers by rating in a Lorenz curve to visually render the accuracy of its rank ordering (for definitions and methodology, refer to Appendix II). Default & Recovery Database | Moody's Analytics On Nov. 12, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Argentina-based diversified real estate company IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC' following the settlement of a distressed exchange offer for 98.3% of its outstanding US$181.5 million series I 10.00% senior unsecured notes due Nov. 14, 2020. According to S&P, at the end of 2020, their 12-month trailing default rates amounted to 6.6% for U.S. speculative-grade. IssuanceEconomist For 2019's offerings of US$-denominated corporate bonds, Defaults are much less frequent for financial services companies than for nonfinancials, which can allow outliers to bias the averages. Noteholders validly tendered about 69% of the total outstanding principal amount of the notes through the exchange. These include industrials, utilities, financial institutions, and insurance companies around the world with long-term local currency ratings. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. Loan loss charges also retreated to well below management's earlier guidance to 117 million (Q3 2020: 273 million) or 10 basis Sources: StepStone Group, CS HY Index, Barclays US IG, Moody's, Cliffwater, Refinitiv LPC as of December 2022. Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2021 Annual Global Corporate Default This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 1990 and a default in 1993. to 'SD' from 'B-' after the issuer missed the Oct. 31 coupon payment on its senior secured notes due 2023. The issuer entered into an agreement with the majority of its lenders for recapitalization of its funded debt. We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Because static pools include only entities with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude companies with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. This study--in line with previous default studies--confirms that over the long term (1981-2020), higher ratings are more stable than lower ratings. The only exceptions to the correspondence between lower ratings and higher default rates occur when the number of defaults is low or when the underlying number of issuers is very small--such as at the rating modifier level among the higher rating categories (see table 26). The issuer entered into a forbearance agreement for deferring the interest payments on its second lien-term loan until June 30, 2020. For these counts of large downgrades, we include movements to 'D' (default) along with what we normally report as downgrades (that is, downward movements between active ratings). PDF China Banking System Credit trends amid policy-led recovery and a Bond price data for firms at default are obtained from Moody's Investor Services, and are supplemented with information from Standard & Poor's and Merrill 5 A similar point is made in Pykhtin (2003). Our model further indicates that the global rate will . The two upgrades are U.S.-based Noble Energy Inc. and Infor Inc. Companies that experience large downgrades are often outliers, especially in years of high credit stability. The defaulters are: Argentina-based oil and gas company YPF S.A., and Cayman Islands-incorporated (China-based) real estate developer Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. We have also revised our default tally in a monthly reconciliation process to include Oregon-based digital media and . The company effectively converted its existing 270 million first-lien term loans from paying cash interest to paying interest as part-cash, part-payment-in-kind over the next three years and 20 million second-lien term loans from paying cash interest to all payment-in-kind until maturity, with unanimous lender approval. On March 12, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Illinois-based engineered fastener distributor Optimas OE Solutions Holding LLC to 'SD' from 'CCC+'. The principal liquidity sources for the issuer involves US$48 million cash on hand and about US$35 million to US$55 million available in revolving credits. Financial services companies are typically more sensitive to sudden declines in investor and stakeholder confidence than nonfinancial companies, which can contribute to a rapid decline in funding liquidity and credit quality. The amendment includes a discount on debt for some of its debtholders, which we assess as equivalent to default. Earlier, on June 14, 2016, S&P Global Ratings withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. For example, of all the companies that defaulted during 1981-2020, only two entities rated 'AAA' at inception defaulted within seven years. If an issuer defaults or if the rating on the issuer is withdrawn in the middle of the year, then it would be considered rated 'D' or not rated as of Dec. 31 of that particular year. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. The one-year Gini ratio in 2020 was 86.1%, alongside a speculative-grade default rate of 5.5%. On July 16, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Ohio-based oil and gas exploration and production company Chaparral Energy Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the issuer elected not to make interest payments of US$13.1 million due on its unsecured notes due 2023. For the purposes of this study, if an issuer defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. On April 24, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-based contract drilling services Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. to 'D' from 'CC' after a review of market conditions for contract drilling services. On Jan. 13, 2021, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' form 'SD' after the issuer retired a huge sum of principal in second half of 2020, approximately US$550 million by early December 2020. Sector In-Depth . On April 7, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Tennessee-based health care service provider Quorum Health Corp. to 'D' from 'CCC-'. On Oct. 28, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Indonesia-based retailer PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk. We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. On Nov. 3, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' on the basis of increased liquidity. Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. This difference results from the different methods of calculating default rates. In the summary section at the bottom of tables 30-32, the first row shows the issuer-weighted averages of the marginal default rates. de C.V. (GFamsa) to 'SD' from 'CCC-' .The company missed its interest and principal payments on its 7.25% senior unsecured notes on June 1, 2020. This transaction was aimed at preserving liquidity as sales volume and operating income had been adversely affected by the pandemic. All four major regions also saw their 2020 speculative-grade default rates rise above their long-term annual averages (see table 7 and chart 21). Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two up to 20 years. For example, 'AA+' rated issuers were still rated 'AA+' one year later 79.3% of the time, and 'AA' rated issuers were still rated 'AA' one year later 80.9% of the time. The gap becomes even wider over longer time horizons, such as three years and 10 years (see chart 19). On May 11, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Colombia-based air transportation company Avianca Holdings S.A. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the issuer and its subsidiaries and affiliates voluntarily filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 in New York to preserve its business structure amid the severe impact of COVID-19 on the global air transportation industry. The issuer has long struggled to adapt to the business model in a challenging domestic department store space, which shrank further because of the coronavirus pandemic. In 2020, speculative-grade rating categories had higher default rates than in 2019, with an increase in the 'BB' category to 0.93% from 0.00%, 'B' category to 3.5% from 1.5%, and 'CCC'/'C' category to 47.5% from 29.8% (see table 3). In light of our expectation of a continued economic recovery and accommodative funding conditions in the coming year, Moody's Analytics Credit Transition Model projects the global default rate will fall to 1.7% at the end of this year. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. An improving picture in 2017 . Over the long term (1981-2020), heightened ratings stability is broadly consistent with higher ratings (see table 21). Earlier, on March 17, 2020, we lowered the long-term issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'B' after the issuer's refinancing prospects were difficult and capital structure was unsustainable. One key reason is that financial services companies typically start with investment-grade ratings, while most nonfinancial issuers have speculative-grade initial ratings, particularly over the past 10 years. The negative outlook reflects the risk of a lower rating if operating performance continues to deteriorate and the company fails to meet our expectations. For this study, the Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. On June 5, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on California-based fitness service provider 24 Hour Fitness Worldwide Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC+' after the issuer missed interest payments on its senior notes due 2022 and entered into the grace period. The company was continuing discussions with its debtholders, and we believed these would result in a comprehensive debt restructuring or a bankruptcy filing. On Dec. 28, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its rating at the issuer's request. In 2021, we rated over $6 trillion of issuance and served more than 1,100 issuers who accessed the markets for the first time. Later, on Dec. 10, 2020, we raised the issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the company completed debt repurchases on favorable terms. default, and recovery information. With the region moving to promote disintermediation, this share of speculative-grade issuers could continue to grow. The negative outlook reflects that we could lower the rating on Outerstuff if operating underperformance continues to pressure liquidity such that we believe a default is inevitable within the subsequent six months. The exchange occurred at a weighted average ratio of approximately US$557 per US$1,000 of principal exchanged plus a total of 1.76 million warrants with a strike price of US$5.60. All of the defaulters in 2020 with active ratings immediately prior to default were rated in the lowest rating categories. Moody's Corporation reported revenue of $1.5 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2022, down 5% from the prior-year period. On Oct. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based telecom operator Oi S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced that the judicial court ratified the amendment to the company's judicial reorganization plan, which was approved by the majority of its creditholders on Sept. 8, 2020. The analysis excludes public information ("pi") ratings and ratings based on the guarantee of another company or government entity. NAIC - Supporting Insurance, Regulators, & Public Interest S&P Global Ratings had previously withdrawn its ratings on Techniplas. Fitch Ratings: Credit Ratings & Analysis For Financial Markets Fitch Ratings provides forward-looking credit opinions, as indicated by its ratings, that reflect its expectations of credit behavior over a range of scenarios. On Aug. 26, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised the issuer credit rating to 'B-' from 'SD'. FORM 8-K. CURRENT REPORT Pursuant To Section 13 or 15 (d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Project Finance Bank Loans: Default and Recovery Rates - Moody's Live In contrast, the average time to default among entities initially rated speculative grade was 6.2 years, with an associated standard deviation of 6.3 years. Earlier, on June 9, 2020, we withdrew the issuer credit ratings at the issuer's request. For example, the one-year default rate column of table 24 is equivalent to column 'D' of the average one-year transition matrix in table 21, as well as the cumulative average in the "Summary statistics" of the one-year column in table 32. On May 21, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on the issuer. Combined global bond issuance for nonfinancial corporates and financial services companies hit $5.7 trillion--a 27% increase from the high in 2019. Post the transaction, the company will have new senior secured three-and-half-year US$171.4 million notes due in 2024 and five-year US$251 million notes due in 2025. We consider the exchange distressed and tantamount to default because, in our view, the transaction offers less than the original promise for the security. On April 15, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on the issuer to 'D' from 'SD' upon the company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, following which, on May 28, 2021, the ratings on the issuer were withdrawn. S&P Forecast. It had other coupon payments of US$8 million each in August and October. Its rating history after the default event is included in all calculations as entirely separate from its experience leading up to its earlier default. In 2005, the speculative-grade share of European corporate ratings peaked near 21%, and once the cycle turned, the European speculative-grade default rate peaked at 9.9% in November 2009. An obligor rated 'SD' (selective default) or 'D' (default) is in default on one or more of its financial obligations, including rated and unrated financial obligations but excluding hybrid instruments classified as regulatory capital or in nonpayment according to terms. On May 11, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings at the issuer's request. The issuer halted production at some of its plants because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and reached an agreement with its senior secured lenders for a financial restructuring plan. On average, there is a negative correlation between the initial rating on an entity and its time to default, if a default occurs. Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates - Moody's Analytics Defaulters initially rated 'CCC' show the reverse pattern, with the highest default rate observed in the first year, which is not surprising given the low rating and S&P Global Ratings' associated criteria (see "Criteria For Assigning CCC+, CCC, CCC-, And CC Ratings," Oct. 1, 2012). With its highly developed financing markets, the U.S. also has a considerably higher share of speculative-grade companies than other regions--it accounted for 52.6% of speculative-grade companies globally at the beginning of 2020. Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2020 Annual Global Corporate Default Moody's publishes the 30th annual default study; forecasts a lower Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of companies in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Despite increased defaults overall, there were no defaults that began 2020 with an investment-grade rating (see table 4). We make our best effort to capture such defaults in the database, and we include an entity in the annual default rate calculations if it was rated as of Jan. 1 in the year of default. Through Dec. 31, 2020, 198 defaults have come from the 2020 pool of financial and nonfinancial companies, and 94% of these were from the lowest rating categories--'B' and lower. This appendix provides summaries of the events leading up to each default and, in some cases, events following the default. In the seven-year Lorenz curve, speculative-grade issuers constituted 88.3% of defaulters and only 36.7% of the entire sample (see chart 29). On Aug. 14, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Texas-based midstream energy company Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the issuer announced the completion of the distressed exchange of US$364.5 million senior unsecured notes due in 2021. In its base case, Moody's analyzed the underlying collateral pool as having a performing par (after treating deferring securities as performing if they meet certain criteria) of $260.9 million, defaulted/deferring par of $0 million, a weighted average default probability of 12.33% (implying a WARF of 1527), and a weighted average recovery rate . For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2018 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2020. On Sept. 25, 2020, Neiman Marcus Holding Company Inc. (formerly the Neiman Marcus Group Ltd. LLC) announced that it emerged from voluntary Chapter 11. To avoid overcounting, we exclude subsidiaries with debt that is fully guaranteed by a parent or with default risk that is considered identical to that of a parent. Moody's expects the overall default rate for commodity companies to fall sharply this year, to 3.4% from 12.6% in 2016. On July 2, 2020, S&P Global Ratings withdrew its ratings on the issuer. Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion S.A. On a year-over-year basis, the number of rated defaults globally was higher in every quarter of 2020 relative to 2019 (see chart 14). Overall, ultimate recovery rates for project finance bank loans are similar to those for senior secured corporate bank loans and overall corporate bank loans. The largest defaulter in 2020 was U.S.-based telecommunications provider Frontier Communications Corp., with $22.5 billion outstanding at the time of its default. Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. APC Automotive Technologies Intermediate Holdings LLC. In this new report, Moody's forecasts that the rate will peak at 7.3% in March 2021, and then decline to 4.7% by December. Normally, recessions include, or are followed shortly by, marked increases in corporate defaults. 17 Jan 2023 | Moody's Investors Service. On July 28, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Delaware-based footwear provider Never Slip Topco Inc. to 'D' from 'CCC' after the issuer entered a distressed exchange to amend first- and second-lien credit agreements. Emerging markets: Most were nonfinancial companies, and five were financial services issuers. The issuer is facing challenges in adapting to the ongoing changes in the department store sector. On June 17, 2020, we withdrew the ratings on the issuer. On Oct. 19, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Oklahoma-based home security and monitoring company Central Security Group Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' after the issuer completed a distressed debt exchange on the first-lien credit facility, in which lenders will exchange about US$396 million of their respective claims for a new US$200 million first-lien term loan due 2025 and most of the reorganized equity, and the second-lien lenders will exchange 100% of their US$50 million claim for 1% of the company's reorganized equity. On Nov. 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Colorado-based exploration and production company Jonah Energy LLC to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the issuer elected not to make its full US$30 million reserve-based lending facility deficiency payment for September. The MarketWatch News Department was not involved in the creation of this content. Earlier, on March 31, 2020, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Global Knowledge to 'CC' from 'CCC-' as the company's liquidity remained very weak and it faced substantial near-term debt maturities, as well as needed to address its unsustainable capital structure. While the one-year default rate for nonfinancial companies has climbed above 3.5% in four cyclical peaks (1991, 2001-2002, 2009, and 2020), the annual default rate for financial services has remained below 2% since 1990 and below 1% for the past 11 years (see chart 18). On Oct. 28, 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on the Netherlands-based self-service retail and coffee services company Selecta Group B.V. to 'SD' from 'CC' after the England and Wales High Court sanctioned the scheme of arrangement proposed by pan-European vending machine operator Selecta Group B.V. and backed by the group's creditors. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient.
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