Natural Resources and Economies of the Middle East oil Explain the economic challenges faced in Turkey. About a third (35%) predict no real change. For an overwhelming majority of Americans, the 9/11 terrorist attacks stand as the most important historic event in their lifetimes. Environmental Issues in the Middle East Flashcards | Quizlet Gradient boosting. Lenovo is just one manufacturer that has used predictive analytics to better understand warranty claims an initiative that led to a 10 to 15 percent reduction in warranty costs. Predictive models use known results to develop (or train) a model that can be used to predict values for different or new data. Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world's population, live in areas of physical scarcity, and 500 million people are approaching this situation. These books point to the need for a stronger response to looming challenges like climate change. Predictive Analytics: What it is and why it matters | SAS Tougher economic conditions and a need for competitive differentiation. K-nearest neighbor (KNN). UN-Water, FAO, 2007, With the existing climate change scenario, almost. A strategic issue and priority for system-wide action [ - 474 KB]UN-Water. But those closer to the top of the income ladder are somewhat more likely to forecast a growing lower class than those who are closer to the bottom. Archaeology studies the people in the past as indicators of the things that anthropologists study and more. Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans to say that the share of Americans in the lower class will grow (65% vs. 59%) and the middle class will shrink (50% vs. 42%). World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP), March 2012. D) will incur a budget deficit. Chile, for example, projected to move from medium water stress in 2010 to extremely high stress in 2040, is among the countries more likely to face a water supply decrease from the combined effects of rising temperatures in critical regions and shifting precipitation patterns. . Of course, they also reveal the overwhelming complexity of our world, as technologist David Weinberger warns in a recent Wired article, forcing us to confront the fact that uncertainty isnt going away anytime soon. The powerful algorithm at the heart of their tool can transform multiple time series into a tensor, which is a multi-dimensional array of numbers (pictured). We chose this future in consultation with leading experts because it is simplified yet useful information to help international, organizations, businesses, and financial institutions take steps to mitigate risks. Predictive analytics is the use of data, statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data. A common thread across these volumes is the importance, and difficulty, of combating climate change. World Geo Unit 9 Flashcards | Quizlet Natural disasters are here to stay. Support vector machine. Symposium asserts a role for higher education in preparing every graduate to meet global challenges with courage. Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa[ - 428 MB]Executive summary [ - 141 KB]World Bank. But for starters, here are a few basics. The map shows dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. When Americans predict what the economic circumstances of the average family will be in 2050, they do so with more trepidation than hope. A 57% majority says adults ages 65 and older will have a worse standard of living in 2050 than today. Unlike the large differences that mark views of blacks and whites on many race-related questions, the racial divide on this question is narrower. Sports analytics is a hot area, thanks in part to Nate Silver and tournament predictions. Share this page with friends or colleagues. The confidence intervals are also designed to help nonexperts to make a more informed decision by incorporating the degree of uncertainty of the predictions into their decision making. 2005 This report, based on a review of close to 20 cases of projects and investments mainly in Africa and Latin America, and supplemented with interviews with practitioners from both development and commercial financial institutions, concludes that there is a business case for improving risk management tools, which can specifically be related to the risks borne by water scarcity. Data mining techniques such as sampling, clustering and decision trees are applied to data collected over time with the goal of improving predictions. Study with Quizlet and memorize flashcards containing terms like fundamentalism, When analysts in Western cultures use the word fundamentalism in connection with the Middle East, they primarily mean the Islamic reaffirmation of religious values in:, Which natural resource supports the economy of many nations in the region. Comstocks story of bringing the Ecomagination strategy to life at GE exemplifies the challenges of getting a big organization to tackle global ecological problems. Your answer should be written in three or more complete sentences. While substantial majorities of every major demographic group predict a global power emergency, Hispanics and lower-income adults are particularly likely to see this occurring. This work is very interesting for a number of reasons. Credit scores are used to assess a buyers likelihood of default for purchases and are a well-known example of predictive analytics. However, specific areas of each, such as the southwestern U.S. and Chinas Ningxia province, could see water stress increase by up to 40 to 70 percent. Currents are driven by several factors. Shah and his collaborators have been working on the problem of interpreting time-series data for years, adapting different algorithms and integrating them into tspDB as they built the interface. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) predict health care will be less affordable in 2050 than it is today, a view shared across most demographic groups. A decision tree looks like a tree with each branch representing a choice between a number of alternatives, and each leaf representing a classification or decision. And while nearly half of all whites predict things will get worse for families, only about a third of Hispanics (35%) are as pessimistic. 1) Martyr (Jesus was willing to die for it) 2) Promise of salvation. Johnson concurs, recommending that decision makers cultivate diverse voices to avoid blind spots, using small-group activities like charettes to allow those voices to be heard. b. At the same time, virtually identical shares of Republicans (64%) and Democrats (63%) forecast a growing national debt. However, certain users, such as international commercial banks with national portfolios, depend on national indicators to assess risk, so rankings and aggregated scores are valuable. Faculty and researchers across MITs School of Engineering receive many awards in recognition of their scholarship, service, and overall excellence. And then you might need someone in IT who can help deploy your models. They cause social hardship and impede development. In her inaugural address, President Sally Kornbluth urges the MIT community to tackle pressing challenges, especially climate change, with renewed urgency. Washington DC 20002 A strategic issue and priority for system-wide action, Challenges of Water Scarcity: A Business Case for Financial Institutions, Making the Most of Scarcity. As with U.S. standing in the world, large party differences emerge on this question. Responses may vary but should include some or all of the following information: Dams have been useful to many countries in the Middle East that depend on outside water sources, such as rivers, to survive. Staples gained customer insight by analyzing behavior, providing a complete picture of their customers, and realizing a 137% ROI. Thats why we need to remain vigilant in rationally calculating the future effects of big choices, says science writer Steven Johnson. Sinek sees federal legislation to reduce emissions as an act of an infinite mindset. Underfitting means the opposite not enough variables and the model is too simple. Retirement, Social Security and long-term care, 5. The variant of mSSA that we introduced actually captures all of that beautifully. Adults ages 65 and older are among the most optimistic about this: 70% expect an Alzheimers cure in the next 30 years. Challenges: Few valuable resources besides oil, economy depends on oil, Little farming, food has to be imported because of this In the Middle East, most people seem to live near sources of____ Iron and rare Earths. Challenge of the twenty-first century. Most stand with their hands in their pockets. In todays world, that means data from a lot of places. 15 terms. 2007 Produced on the occasion of World Water Day 2007, which focused on the issue of water scarcity, this document introduces the multiple dimensions of water scarcity and how it can affect all social and economic sectors and threaten the sustainability of the natural resources base. Better data and analytics can inform better treatment protocols, provider education and policy decisions and save lives. The price of water goes up, which increases the need for people to find new ways of reusing the natural resource. Analytics for prescription drug monitoring: How to better identify opioid abuse. They also handle missing values well and are useful for preliminary variable selection. Roughly 90 percent of all data is unstructured. and more. What external factors will influence their industries? About two-thirds of whites (65%) forecast a diminished role in the world for the U.S. in 30 years, a view shared by 48% of blacks and Hispanics. Global Drylands: A UN system-wide responseUnited Nations Environment Management Group. And Johnson opens his book with a critique of the shortsighted decision to fill in Manhattans only source of fresh water in the early 19th century. But we can minimize their destruction by predicting and preparing for events like floods. Water is scarce because there are few lakes and rivers and many mountain ranges block rain from moving inland. Partial least squares. The diagram below shows the desalination process. C) has a balance of trade deficit. Middle East chapter 14&15. 2007 This document gives an overview of literature covering drought, desertification and water scarcity. An action framework for agriculture and food security, Global Drylands: A UN system-wide response, (The) Wealth of Waste: The Economics of Wastewater Use in Agriculture, Drought, Desertification and Water Scarcity, Coping with water scarcity. Source: World Water Development Report 4. They also use predictive analytics to enhance cybersecurity. Importantly this model connects the field of time series analysis to that of the rapidly evolving topic of tensor completion, and I expect a lot of follow-on research spurred by this paper.. Uncertainty permeates these forward-looking models because future climate conditions and development patterns are impossible to predict. below, credit the images to "MIT.". Time series data is time-stamped and collected over time at a particular interval (sales in a month, calls per day, web visits per hour, etc.). Water scarcity already affects every continent. The Middle East is home to ______________ percent of the world's desalination plans. Reducing risk. With linear regression, one independent variable is used to explain and/or predict the outcome of Y. Here are a few examples. Too often, where we need water we find guns. The Magic can now visually explore the freshest data, right down to the game and seat. Business analysts and line-of-business experts are using these technologies as well. UN in Action 70% of world's oil reserves are here, sulfate and sulfur are important producers of revenue for this region, economic activities of the region include tourism, banking, and info tech. Predictive analytics are used to determine customer responses or purchases, as well as promote cross-sell opportunities. Learn more about data mining software from SAS. Analyses of machine sensor data predicts when power-generating turbines need maintenance. Governments must also respond with management and conservation practices that will help protect essential sustainable water resources for years to come. Many companies use predictive models to forecast inventory and manage resources. Whites are significantly more likely than blacks to predict that the relative size of the lower class will increase (66% vs. 50%) and that the middle class will shrink (50% vs. 34%). The public is also pessimistic about the future course of the national debt. ECONOMICS AND POLITICS Flashcards | Quizlet Varied points of view can lead to friction, but thats to be encouraged. Voter integrity is becoming a serious concern for many elections. Some are scratching their heads. Business users across the Orlando Magic organization have instant access to information. Memory-based reasoning. . Their algorithm outperformed all the others on imputation and it outperformed all but one of the other algorithms when it came to forecasting future values. Place: Azerbaijan The power of this common tool lies in the discipline with which it forces us to explore uncharted territory. Human Development Report 2006. Water scarcity and desertification [ - 528 KB]United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The Middle Eastern nations with the greatest reserves of natural gas and oil are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait. Incremental response (also called net lift or uplift models). It analyzes the factors that drive the political economy of water reform and shows how some of them are changing in the MENA region in ways that could open up opportunities for water reform. Two-thirds (67%) of Americans with annual family incomes of $75,000 or more say the lower class will grow, a view shared by 57% of those with incomes of $30,000 or less. Following cataract removal, some of the brains visual pathways seem to be more malleable than previously thought. More people will move to cities, further straining supplies. While changing water supply and demand is inevitable, exactly what that change will look like around the world is far from certain. Decision trees are classification models that partition data into subsets based on categories of input variables. The impressive performance of mSSA is what makes tspDB so effective, Shah explains. About three-quarters of Hispanics (76%) and adults with family incomes of less than $30,000 (73%) expect a major energy crisis in the next 30 years. What is the most precious resource in the Middle East? The report discusses how the challenges and opportunities of the increasingly global economy may change the dynamics of water policy and how the changing demographics of the region (such as rapid urbanization, and increased education levels) might affect demand for water services. They are often used to confirm findings from simple techniques like regression and decision trees. In On the Future: Prospects for Humanity, Martin Rees doesnt tell us how we should think about the future; instead he lays out his own predictions. But one country - Azerbaijan - which sits between Europe and Western Asia - has come up with an ingenious solution to its water crisis. Roughly six-in-ten Democrats (58%) predict a weaker economy in 2050, while a third say it will be stronger. This one examines trends in biotech, AI, the global climate, and spaceflight. Regression (linear and logistic) is one of the most popular method in statistics. In the Middle East with the hope for peace in the future. What is a medina? What generalizations can be made about the population density of North Africa? In a weather database, for instance, temperature, dew point, and cloud cover each depend on their past values. Time series data mining combines traditional data mining and forecasting techniques. Why It's So Hard to Plan for the Future - Harvard Business Review . In less than twenty years, nearly two billion people could face water shortages. Roughly half or more of every income group predict a weaker economy in the next 30 years. Take scenario planning. Comstock wanted to challenge people to think about the future in fresh ways. 10 G Street NE What is the debt ratio for Google in the current year and for the prior year? A tool for predicting the future | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute Share this Second, we examined the relative accuracy of JOLs and RCJs at predicting future recall performance. These countries have enjoyed tremendous growth in national wealth and an improved standard of living in the past fifty yearsWhich country has the largest petroleum reserve on the planet? Governments have been key players in the advancement of computer technologies. Entire books are devoted to analytical methods and techniques. Water is a significant dimension of the decades-old conflict between Palestine and Israel. For instance, you try to classify whether someone is likely to leave, whether he will respond to a solicitation, whether hes a good or bad credit risk, etc. Combining multiple analytics methods can improve pattern detection, identify criminal behavior and prevent fraud. Dams provide extra water for farming and electricity in the countries where they are built. First, we examined whether retrospective confidence judgments (RCJs) and judgments of learning (JOLs) assess memory differently. a. little incentive to acquire information about potential uses of the resources. Optimism about the future of race relations is closely related to educational attainment. What is the problem, which are the consequences, how to handle it and live with it. Airlines use predictive analytics to set ticket prices. Log in. Rapidly growing populations will drive increased consumption by people, farms and companies. When you are working with something simple like this, instead of a neural network that can easily overfit the data, you can actually perform better, Alomar says. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a declining share of the world's population (53% in 2050, compared with 59% in 2010).